Juarez FC vs Pachuca

05 Sep 2026 · 05:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +6.9 pp

Juarez FC

Pachuca

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.6% DRAW 25.7% AWAY 54.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.0% 3.90 DRAW 27.2% 3.58 AWAY 47.8% 2.04

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Pachuca substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.7% win probability, compared with 47.8% implied by the market. The 6.9 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Pachuca has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Juarez FC Pachuca

Shots 7.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 16.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Pachuca, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Juarez FC Pachuca

Shots allowed 20.8 · On target allowed 8.8 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Pachuca has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Juarez FC Pachuca

The combined recent performance profile favours Pachuca.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Juarez FC ↑ +0.32 (+8.8%)

Pachuca ↑ +0.04 (+2.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.