Nice vs Le Mans

05 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Nice

Le Mans

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.4% DRAW 22.9% AWAY 17.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.8% 1.70 DRAW 23.7% 4.15 AWAY 18.5% 5.32

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Nice

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nice Le Mans

Shots 11.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nice Le Mans

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Nice has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nice Le Mans

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Nice ↓ -0.11 (-6.1%)

Le Mans ↑ +0.55 (+11.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.