Toulouse vs Lille

03 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Toulouse

Lille

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.5% DRAW 26.1% AWAY 52.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.2% 4.39 DRAW 26.4% 3.70 AWAY 51.4% 1.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Lille

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Toulouse Lille

Shots 10.0 · On target 2.5 Shots 14.3 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours Lille, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Toulouse Lille

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Toulouse Lille

The combined recent performance profile favours Lille.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Toulouse ↑ +1.07 (+32.9%)

Lille ↓ -0.51 (-20.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.