PSV Reserves vs AZ Reserves

14 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

PSV Reserves

AZ Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.5% DRAW 21.7% AWAY 42.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.8% 2.55 DRAW 22.8% 4.23 AWAY 39.4% 2.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for AZ Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.8% win probability, compared with 39.4% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

AZ Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

PSV Reserves AZ Reserves

Shots 13.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 17.3 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours AZ Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

PSV Reserves AZ Reserves

Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.3

AZ Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

PSV Reserves AZ Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours AZ Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

PSV Reserves ↑ +0.32 (+14.3%)

AZ Reserves ↓ -0.10 (-3.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.