De Graafschap vs NAC

20 Sep 2026 · 16:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

De Graafschap

NAC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 24.7% DRAW 21.7% AWAY 53.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.3% 3.65 DRAW 22.9% 4.20 AWAY 50.8% 1.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for NAC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 53.5% win probability, compared with 50.8% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: NAC

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

De Graafschap NAC

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 18.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours NAC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

De Graafschap NAC

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

De Graafschap NAC

The combined recent performance profile favours NAC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

De Graafschap ↑ +0.23 (+6.7%)

NAC ↓ -0.01 (-0.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.