IMT Novi Belgrade vs Crvena Zvezda

13 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

IMT Novi Belgrade

Crvena Zvezda

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.8% DRAW 14.1% AWAY 76.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 8.2% 12.20 DRAW 13.9% 7.24 AWAY 77.9% 1.29

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Crvena Zvezda

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

IMT Novi Belgrade Crvena Zvezda

Shots 12.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 16.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Crvena Zvezda, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

IMT Novi Belgrade Crvena Zvezda

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 3.8

IMT Novi Belgrade has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

IMT Novi Belgrade Crvena Zvezda

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

IMT Novi Belgrade ↑ +4.50 (+58.4%)

Crvena Zvezda ↓ -0.11 (-7.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.