FK Napredak vs Smederevo

21 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

FK Napredak

Smederevo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.7% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 29.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.7% 2.12 DRAW 29.0% 3.20 AWAY 27.3% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Smederevo has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Napredak Smederevo

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 13.8 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours Smederevo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Napredak Smederevo

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Napredak Smederevo

The combined recent performance profile favours Smederevo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

FK Napredak = (0.0%)

Smederevo ↑ +0.15 (+4.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.