Metalac Gornji vs FK Graficar Beograd

21 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

Metalac Gornji

FK Graficar Beograd

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.7% DRAW 29.0% AWAY 25.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.5% 2.07 DRAW 29.0% 3.25 AWAY 25.5% 3.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: FK Graficar Beograd

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Metalac Gornji FK Graficar Beograd

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 13.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours FK Graficar Beograd, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Metalac Gornji FK Graficar Beograd

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Metalac Gornji has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Metalac Gornji FK Graficar Beograd

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Metalac Gornji ↓ -0.15 (-6.8%)

FK Graficar Beograd ↑ +0.66 (+21.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.