Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu

26 Sep 2026 · 10:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.2 pp

Omiya Ardija

Ventforet Kofu

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.3% DRAW 21.2% AWAY 15.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.1% 1.60 DRAW 22.9% 4.14 AWAY 18.0% 5.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Omiya Ardija clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.3% win probability, compared with 59.1% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Omiya Ardija has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Omiya Ardija Ventforet Kofu

Shots 12.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Omiya Ardija, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Omiya Ardija Ventforet Kofu

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.3

Omiya Ardija has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Omiya Ardija Ventforet Kofu

The combined recent performance profile favours Omiya Ardija.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Omiya Ardija ↑ +0.02 (+1.0%)

Ventforet Kofu = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.