Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu

26 Sep 2026 · 10:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Montedio Yamagata

Sagan Tosu

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.6% DRAW 25.9% AWAY 42.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.2% 3.00 DRAW 26.4% 3.66 AWAY 41.4% 2.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Montedio Yamagata

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Montedio Yamagata Sagan Tosu

Shots 13.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Montedio Yamagata, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Montedio Yamagata Sagan Tosu

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.3

Sagan Tosu has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Montedio Yamagata Sagan Tosu

The combined recent performance profile favours Sagan Tosu.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Montedio Yamagata ↑ +0.25 (+9.1%)

Sagan Tosu ↓ -0.07 (-2.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.