Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata

13 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Albirex Niigata

Montedio Yamagata

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.4% DRAW 29.9% AWAY 30.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.9% 2.55 DRAW 29.8% 3.24 AWAY 32.2% 3.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Albirex Niigata

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Albirex Niigata Montedio Yamagata

Shots 13.0 · On target 6.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Albirex Niigata Montedio Yamagata

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Albirex Niigata Montedio Yamagata

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Albirex Niigata ↑ +0.26 (+11.4%)

Montedio Yamagata = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.