Omiya Ardija vs Oita

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Omiya Ardija

Oita

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.1% DRAW 26.9% AWAY 20.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.4% 1.93 DRAW 27.5% 3.54 AWAY 22.1% 4.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Omiya Ardija relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 53.1% win probability, compared with 50.4% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Omiya Ardija

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Omiya Ardija Oita

Shots 14.0 · On target 7.3 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Omiya Ardija, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Omiya Ardija Oita

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Omiya Ardija Oita

The combined recent performance profile favours Omiya Ardija.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Omiya Ardija ↓ -0.03 (-1.4%)

Oita ↑ +0.54 (+14.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.