Vegalta Sendai vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

13 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Vegalta Sendai

Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.9% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 17.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.8% 1.73 DRAW 24.6% 3.93 AWAY 19.6% 4.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Vegalta Sendai relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.9% win probability, compared with 55.8% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Vegalta Sendai

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vegalta Sendai Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

Shots 14.3 · On target 6.5 Shots 8.3 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Vegalta Sendai, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vegalta Sendai Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vegalta Sendai Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

The combined recent performance profile favours Vegalta Sendai.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Vegalta Sendai ↓ -0.19 (-9.8%)

Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo ↑ +1.06 (+27.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.