Renofa Yamaguchi vs Sagamihara

26 Sep 2026 · 07:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.4 pp

Renofa Yamaguchi

Sagamihara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.7% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 23.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.3% 2.01 DRAW 27.6% 3.30 AWAY 27.0% 3.37

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Renofa Yamaguchi clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.7% win probability, compared with 45.3% implied by the market. The 4.4 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Renofa Yamaguchi has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Renofa Yamaguchi Sagamihara

Shots 15.3 · On target 6.8 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Renofa Yamaguchi, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Renofa Yamaguchi Sagamihara

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Renofa Yamaguchi has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Renofa Yamaguchi Sagamihara

The combined recent performance profile favours Renofa Yamaguchi.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Renofa Yamaguchi ↑ +0.06 (+3.1%)

Sagamihara ↑ +0.02 (+0.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.