Thespa Gunma vs Roasso Kumamoto

26 Sep 2026 · 10:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Thespa Gunma

Roasso Kumamoto

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.9% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 39.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.2% 2.73 DRAW 28.3% 3.39 AWAY 36.5% 2.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Roasso Kumamoto has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Thespa Gunma Roasso Kumamoto

Shots 5.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Roasso Kumamoto, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Thespa Gunma Roasso Kumamoto

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Roasso Kumamoto has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Thespa Gunma Roasso Kumamoto

The combined recent performance profile favours Roasso Kumamoto.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Thespa Gunma ↑ +0.41 (+17.7%)

Roasso Kumamoto = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.