Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Y FC

26 Sep 2026 · 10:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Tochigi SC

Matsumoto Y FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% DRAW 28.7% AWAY 30.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.9% 2.36 DRAW 28.8% 3.27 AWAY 31.4% 3.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Matsumoto Y FC

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tochigi SC Matsumoto Y FC

Shots 11.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tochigi SC Matsumoto Y FC

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tochigi SC Matsumoto Y FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Tochigi SC ↑ +0.30 (+14.6%)

Matsumoto Y FC ↓ -0.25 (-7.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.