Roasso Kumamoto vs Matsumoto Y FC

18 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Roasso Kumamoto

Matsumoto Y FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.6% DRAW 29.7% AWAY 32.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.1% 2.48 DRAW 29.6% 3.20 AWAY 32.3% 2.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Matsumoto Y FC

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Roasso Kumamoto Matsumoto Y FC

Shots 9.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 13.0 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Matsumoto Y FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Roasso Kumamoto Matsumoto Y FC

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Roasso Kumamoto Matsumoto Y FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Roasso Kumamoto ↑ +0.11 (+4.4%)

Matsumoto Y FC ↑ +0.33 (+12.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.