Renofa Yamaguchi vs Thespa Gunma

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Renofa Yamaguchi

Thespa Gunma

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.6% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 17.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.1% 1.68 DRAW 24.6% 3.84 AWAY 19.3% 4.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Renofa Yamaguchi relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.6% win probability, compared with 56.1% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Renofa Yamaguchi

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Renofa Yamaguchi Thespa Gunma

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Renofa Yamaguchi Thespa Gunma

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 6.8

Renofa Yamaguchi has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Renofa Yamaguchi Thespa Gunma

The combined recent performance profile favours Renofa Yamaguchi.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓ -0.13 (-7.2%)

Thespa Gunma ↑ +1.17 (+31.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.