Matsumoto Y FC vs Sagamihara

13 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Matsumoto Y FC

Sagamihara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.9% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 28.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.1% 2.31 DRAW 28.5% 3.25 AWAY 31.5% 2.94

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Matsumoto Y FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.9% win probability, compared with 40.1% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Matsumoto Y FC

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Matsumoto Y FC Sagamihara

Shots 14.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Matsumoto Y FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Matsumoto Y FC Sagamihara

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Matsumoto Y FC Sagamihara

The combined recent performance profile favours Matsumoto Y FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Matsumoto Y FC ↑ +0.06 (+2.7%)

Sagamihara ↑ +0.14 (+5.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.