Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano

05 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Sagamihara

Parceiro Nagano

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.9% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 18.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.4% 1.83 DRAW 27.2% 3.53 AWAY 20.5% 4.68

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sagamihara relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.9% win probability, compared with 52.4% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sagamihara has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sagamihara Parceiro Nagano

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sagamihara Parceiro Nagano

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.8

Sagamihara has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sagamihara Parceiro Nagano

The combined recent performance profile favours Sagamihara.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Sagamihara ↓ -0.11 (-5.7%)

Parceiro Nagano ↑ +1.13 (+31.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.