V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka

19 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

V-Varen Nagasaki

Cerezo Osaka

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.7% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 41.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.7% 3.55 DRAW 27.3% 3.60 AWAY 45.1% 2.18

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for V-Varen Nagasaki relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 30.7% win probability, compared with 27.7% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: V-Varen Nagasaki

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

V-Varen Nagasaki Cerezo Osaka

Shots 15.0 · On target 7.0 Shots 14.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours V-Varen Nagasaki, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

V-Varen Nagasaki Cerezo Osaka

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

V-Varen Nagasaki Cerezo Osaka

The combined recent performance profile favours V-Varen Nagasaki.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

V-Varen Nagasaki ↓ -0.12 (-3.3%)

Cerezo Osaka ↑ +0.18 (+8.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.