Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

19 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Avispa Fukuoka

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.4% DRAW 23.2% AWAY 57.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 20.3% 4.78 DRAW 24.0% 4.04 AWAY 55.8% 1.74

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Avispa Fukuoka Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shots 15.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 18.3 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Avispa Fukuoka Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Avispa Fukuoka Sanfrecce Hiroshima

The combined recent performance profile favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Avispa Fukuoka ↑ +0.80 (+20.0%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓ -0.16 (-8.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.