V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

V-Varen Nagasaki

Nagoya Grampus

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.5% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 45.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.7% 3.63 DRAW 25.0% 3.88 AWAY 48.3% 2.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for V-Varen Nagasaki relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 29.5% win probability, compared with 26.7% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: V-Varen Nagasaki

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

V-Varen Nagasaki Nagoya Grampus

Shots 12.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours V-Varen Nagasaki, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

V-Varen Nagasaki Nagoya Grampus

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

V-Varen Nagasaki Nagoya Grampus

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

V-Varen Nagasaki ↑ +0.33 (+10.0%)

Nagoya Grampus ↓ -0.12 (-5.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.