Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Cerezo Osaka

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.4% DRAW 20.3% AWAY 17.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.1% 1.61 DRAW 21.5% 4.49 AWAY 18.3% 5.27

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Cerezo Osaka

Shots 15.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 15.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Cerezo Osaka

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Cerezo Osaka

The combined recent performance profile favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↑ +0.02 (+1.3%)

Cerezo Osaka ↑ +0.02 (+0.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.