Kyoto Sanga FC vs Kashiwa Reysol

11 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Kyoto Sanga FC

Kashiwa Reysol

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.7% DRAW 24.3% AWAY 55.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 23.2% 4.20 DRAW 25.3% 3.85 AWAY 51.5% 1.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Kashiwa Reysol relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.1% win probability, compared with 51.5% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Kashiwa Reysol has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Kyoto Sanga FC Kashiwa Reysol

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 13.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Kashiwa Reysol, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Kyoto Sanga FC Kashiwa Reysol

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Kashiwa Reysol has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Kyoto Sanga FC Kashiwa Reysol

The combined recent performance profile favours Kashiwa Reysol.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Kyoto Sanga FC ↑ +0.04 (+1.0%)

Kashiwa Reysol ↑ +0.03 (+1.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.