Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F-Marinos

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Machida Zelvia

Yokohama F-Marinos

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.1% DRAW 25.0% AWAY 20.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.9% 1.95 DRAW 25.9% 3.83 AWAY 23.1% 4.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Machida Zelvia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.1% win probability, compared with 50.9% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Machida Zelvia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Machida Zelvia Yokohama F-Marinos

Shots 13.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Machida Zelvia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Machida Zelvia Yokohama F-Marinos

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Machida Zelvia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Machida Zelvia Yokohama F-Marinos

The combined recent performance profile favours Machida Zelvia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Machida Zelvia ↑ +0.20 (+11.6%)

Yokohama F-Marinos ↓ -0.46 (-9.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.