Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

06 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Fagiano Okayama

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.6% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 46.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.0% 4.03 DRAW 26.3% 3.67 AWAY 49.7% 1.94

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Fagiano Okayama relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 26.6% win probability, compared with 24.0% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Fagiano Okayama

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fagiano Okayama Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shots 15.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 13.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fagiano Okayama Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Fagiano Okayama has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fagiano Okayama Sanfrecce Hiroshima

The combined recent performance profile favours Fagiano Okayama.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Fagiano Okayama ↑ +0.50 (+14.2%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓ -0.05 (-2.4%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.