Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia

06 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Nagoya Grampus

Machida Zelvia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.5% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 43.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.4% 3.20 DRAW 27.1% 3.59 AWAY 42.6% 2.28

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Machida Zelvia has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nagoya Grampus Machida Zelvia

Shots 10.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 13.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Machida Zelvia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nagoya Grampus Machida Zelvia

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 2.5

Machida Zelvia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nagoya Grampus Machida Zelvia

The combined recent performance profile favours Machida Zelvia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Nagoya Grampus = (0.0%)

Machida Zelvia ↑ +0.05 (+2.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.