HooGee vs MPS

10 Sep 2026 · 19:15

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.7 pp

HooGee

MPS

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.7% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 23.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.0% 1.98 DRAW 21.3% 4.75 AWAY 27.8% 3.64

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates HooGee clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.7% win probability, compared with 51.0% implied by the market. The 5.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

HooGee has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

HooGee MPS

Shots 15.5 · On target 7.0 Shots 7.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours HooGee, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

HooGee MPS

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

HooGee MPS

The combined recent performance profile favours HooGee.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

HooGee ↓ -0.02 (-1.0%)

MPS ↑ +1.01 (+38.5%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.