Lugano vs Servette

03 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Lugano

Servette

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.0% DRAW 25.7% AWAY 31.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.0% 2.20 DRAW 26.0% 3.81 AWAY 29.1% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Servette has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lugano Servette

Shots 14.3 · On target 7.0 Shots 19.0 · On target 7.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lugano Servette

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lugano Servette

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Lugano ↑ +0.17 (+8.4%)

Servette ↑ +0.12 (+3.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.