Morrinhos vs Trindade

15 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Morrinhos

Trindade

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.9% DRAW 29.0% AWAY 20.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.2% 1.70 DRAW 27.9% 3.30 AWAY 17.9% 5.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Trindade has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Morrinhos Trindade

Shots 5.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 10.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Trindade, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Morrinhos Trindade

Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Morrinhos Trindade

The combined recent performance profile favours Trindade.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Morrinhos ↑ +0.05 (+2.9%)

Trindade ↑ +0.15 (+3.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.