Morrinhos vs Goianesia

05 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Morrinhos

Goianesia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.0% DRAW 30.9% AWAY 39.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.5% 2.92 DRAW 30.6% 3.00 AWAY 37.8% 2.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Goianesia

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Morrinhos Goianesia

Shots 5.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 10.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Goianesia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Morrinhos Goianesia

Shots allowed 17.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 7.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Morrinhos Goianesia

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Morrinhos ↑ +0.12 (+4.2%)

Goianesia ↓ -0.02 (-0.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.