Aarau vs Kriens

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Aarau

Kriens

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.0% DRAW 19.6% AWAY 19.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.3% 1.68 DRAW 21.2% 4.55 AWAY 21.5% 4.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Aarau relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.0% win probability, compared with 57.3% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Aarau

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Aarau Kriens

Shots 19.0 · On target 6.8 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Aarau, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Aarau Kriens

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Aarau Kriens

The combined recent performance profile favours Aarau.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Aarau ↑ +0.01 (+0.8%)

Kriens ↑ +0.35 (+8.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.