Vonds Ichihara vs Criacao Shinjuku

05 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Vonds Ichihara

Criacao Shinjuku

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.8% DRAW 29.6% AWAY 29.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.5% 2.20 DRAW 29.5% 3.10 AWAY 29.0% 3.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Criacao Shinjuku

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vonds Ichihara Criacao Shinjuku

Shots 9.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 14.8 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Criacao Shinjuku, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vonds Ichihara Criacao Shinjuku

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vonds Ichihara Criacao Shinjuku

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Vonds Ichihara = (0.0%)

Criacao Shinjuku ↑ +0.28 (+9.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.