Ayr vs Stenhousemuir

25 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Ayr

Stenhousemuir

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.2% DRAW 29.0% AWAY 29.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.0% 2.38 DRAW 29.0% 3.28 AWAY 30.9% 3.08

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Ayr has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ayr Stenhousemuir

Shots 6.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 6.3 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Ayr, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ayr Stenhousemuir

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ayr Stenhousemuir

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Ayr ↑ +0.18 (+8.2%)

Stenhousemuir ↓ -0.38 (-11.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.