Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs Shurtan

21 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Shurtan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.1% DRAW 20.9% AWAY 64.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 14.3% 6.47 DRAW 21.4% 4.33 AWAY 64.2% 1.44

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Pakhtakor Tashkent II

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Pakhtakor Tashkent II Shurtan

Shots 7.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 7.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Pakhtakor Tashkent II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Pakhtakor Tashkent II Shurtan

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Shurtan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Pakhtakor Tashkent II Shurtan

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Pakhtakor Tashkent II ↑ +0.55 (+9.3%)

Shurtan ↓ -0.01 (-0.4%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.