FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs Lietava Jonava

11 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Lietava Jonava

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.3% DRAW 27.0% AWAY 26.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.2% 1.96 DRAW 27.0% 3.50 AWAY 24.9% 3.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Lietava Jonava has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lietava Jonava

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Lietava Jonava, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lietava Jonava

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 2.5

Lietava Jonava has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lietava Jonava

The combined recent performance profile favours Lietava Jonava.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

FK Neptunas Klaipeda ↑ +0.15 (+8.1%)

Lietava Jonava ↓ -0.14 (-3.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.