FK Garliava vs BFA Vilnius

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

FK Garliava

BFA Vilnius

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.2% DRAW 27.8% AWAY 43.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.8% 3.31 DRAW 28.0% 3.40 AWAY 43.2% 2.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: BFA Vilnius

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Garliava BFA Vilnius

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours BFA Vilnius, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Garliava BFA Vilnius

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 2.0

BFA Vilnius has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Garliava BFA Vilnius

The combined recent performance profile favours BFA Vilnius.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

FK Garliava ↑ +0.71 (+27.1%)

BFA Vilnius ↓ -0.20 (-8.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.