Lietava Jonava vs DFK Dainava

04 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Lietava Jonava

DFK Dainava

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.0% DRAW 28.7% AWAY 39.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.8% 3.25 DRAW 28.4% 3.30 AWAY 42.8% 2.19

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Lietava Jonava relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 32.0% win probability, compared with 28.8% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Lietava Jonava has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lietava Jonava DFK Dainava

Shots 13.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 12.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Lietava Jonava, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lietava Jonava DFK Dainava

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Lietava Jonava has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lietava Jonava DFK Dainava

The combined recent performance profile favours Lietava Jonava.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Lietava Jonava ↓ -0.05 (-1.4%)

DFK Dainava ↑ +0.15 (+7.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.