Leeds vs Crystal Palace

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Leeds

Crystal Palace

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.5% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 18.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.4% 1.72 DRAW 24.3% 4.00 AWAY 19.3% 5.04

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Leeds Crystal Palace

Shots 14.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Leeds Crystal Palace

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Leeds Crystal Palace

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Leeds ↓ -0.11 (-5.9%)

Crystal Palace ↑ +0.43 (+9.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.