Bournemouth vs Liverpool

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.3 pp

Bournemouth

Liverpool

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.1% DRAW 25.0% AWAY 37.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.8% 3.16 DRAW 25.2% 3.85 AWAY 44.0% 2.21

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Bournemouth substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.1% win probability, compared with 30.8% implied by the market. The 6.3 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bournemouth has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bournemouth Liverpool

Shots 20.8 · On target 6.5 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Bournemouth, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bournemouth Liverpool

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.8

Bournemouth has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bournemouth Liverpool

The combined recent performance profile favours Bournemouth.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bournemouth ↑ +0.06 (+1.9%)

Liverpool ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.