Leeds vs Newcastle

14 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Leeds

Newcastle

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.6% DRAW 27.0% AWAY 32.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.3% 2.38 DRAW 27.3% 3.60 AWAY 31.4% 3.13

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Newcastle

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Leeds Newcastle

Shots 13.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 14.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Leeds Newcastle

Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Newcastle has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Leeds Newcastle

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Leeds ↓ -0.11 (-4.4%)

Newcastle ↑ +0.13 (+4.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.