Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznan

04 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Warta Poznan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.9% DRAW 25.8% AWAY 40.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.4% 2.71 DRAW 26.3% 3.64 AWAY 38.3% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Warta Poznan

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Warta Poznan

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 13.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Warta Poznan

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.5

Warta Poznan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Warta Poznan

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki ↑ +0.35 (+14.8%)

Warta Poznan ↓ -0.23 (-8.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.