Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem

03 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Beitar Jerusalem

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% DRAW 27.0% AWAY 32.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.1% 2.38 DRAW 27.3% 3.50 AWAY 32.6% 2.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Beitar Jerusalem

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hapoel Tel Aviv Beitar Jerusalem

Shots 13.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 15.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hapoel Tel Aviv Beitar Jerusalem

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Hapoel Tel Aviv has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hapoel Tel Aviv Beitar Jerusalem

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Hapoel Tel Aviv ↓ -0.33 (-12.2%)

Beitar Jerusalem ↑ +0.56 (+23.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.