Hapoel Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Haifa

14 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.9 pp

Hapoel Kiryat Shmona

Maccabi Haifa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.5% DRAW 24.6% AWAY 53.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.3% 3.93 DRAW 25.7% 3.72 AWAY 50.0% 1.91

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Maccabi Haifa relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 53.9% win probability, compared with 50.0% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Maccabi Haifa

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hapoel Kiryat Shmona Maccabi Haifa

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 14.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hapoel Kiryat Shmona Maccabi Haifa

Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Maccabi Haifa has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hapoel Kiryat Shmona Maccabi Haifa

The combined recent performance profile favours Maccabi Haifa.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Hapoel Kiryat Shmona ↑ +0.22 (+5.9%)

Maccabi Haifa ↑ +0.04 (+2.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.