Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

14 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Hapoel Tel Aviv

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.8% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 28.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.4% 2.16 DRAW 26.1% 3.67 AWAY 29.5% 3.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Maccabi Tel Aviv

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Maccabi Tel Aviv Hapoel Tel Aviv

Shots 16.8 · On target 9.8 Shots 13.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Maccabi Tel Aviv, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Maccabi Tel Aviv Hapoel Tel Aviv

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.3

Hapoel Tel Aviv has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Maccabi Tel Aviv Hapoel Tel Aviv

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Maccabi Tel Aviv ↓ -0.14 (-6.1%)

Hapoel Tel Aviv ↑ +0.26 (+8.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.