NS Mura vs NK Celje

20 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

NS Mura

NK Celje

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.9% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 55.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.2% 4.97 DRAW 23.9% 4.00 AWAY 56.9% 1.68

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: NS Mura

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

NS Mura NK Celje

Shots 13.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 11.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours NS Mura, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

NS Mura NK Celje

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

NS Mura NK Celje

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

NS Mura ↑ +0.78 (+18.5%)

NK Celje ↓ -0.09 (-5.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.