NK Krka vs NK Jesenice

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

NK Krka

NK Jesenice

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.4% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 25.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.8% 1.97 DRAW 25.6% 3.60 AWAY 27.5% 3.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for NK Krka relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.4% win probability, compared with 46.8% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: NK Krka

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

NK Krka NK Jesenice

Shots 11.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours NK Krka, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

NK Krka NK Jesenice

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

NK Krka NK Jesenice

The combined recent performance profile favours NK Krka.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

NK Krka ↓ -0.03 (-1.5%)

NK Jesenice ↑ +0.35 (+11.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.