Tabor Sezana vs NK Bistrica

26 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.6 pp

Tabor Sezana

NK Bistrica

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.6% DRAW 22.1% AWAY 18.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.5% 1.51 DRAW 21.8% 4.33 AWAY 15.7% 6.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for NK Bistrica relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 18.3% win probability, compared with 15.7% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

NK Bistrica has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tabor Sezana NK Bistrica

Shots 11.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 12.8 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours NK Bistrica, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tabor Sezana NK Bistrica

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 4.0

NK Bistrica has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tabor Sezana NK Bistrica

The combined recent performance profile favours NK Bistrica.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Tabor Sezana ↑ +0.03 (+2.1%)

NK Bistrica ↑ +0.77 (+13.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.