Excelsior Virton vs Genk II

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Excelsior Virton

Genk II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.0% DRAW 22.8% AWAY 31.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.7% 2.23 DRAW 23.8% 4.10 AWAY 32.5% 3.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Genk II

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Excelsior Virton Genk II

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Genk II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Excelsior Virton Genk II

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 6.8

Excelsior Virton has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Excelsior Virton Genk II

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Excelsior Virton ↑ +0.25 (+12.6%)

Genk II ↓ -0.10 (-3.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.